How are release odds calculated?

We aggregate public prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi). When the same event trades on both venues, we show each venue's price and the spread. Drop Readiness blends average market odds with intel recency, changelog activity, deadline proximity, and volume.

What is confirmed vs rumor?

Briefing items are tagged as Confirmed (official sources), Rumor (leaks and social), or Market (prediction-market implied). Changelogs and social chatter are cited separately.

How often is data updated?

Forecasts refresh every five minutes. Release intelligence (briefing, gossip, changelogs) refreshes hourly.

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RSS

Frontier model intelligence

Next AI Drop

Prediction-market odds, cross-venue consensus, and hourly release intelligence — scored for drop readiness.

nextaidrop.com

Markets

Release forecasts

Soonest deadline first · Drop Readiness (DR) on each card

Watchlist

Codename watch

Internal codenames tied to rumored or upcoming frontier drops.

Shipped

Recent releases (60 days)

Shipped models indexed from official changelogs and news.

Hourly scan

AI release intelligence

AI briefing, social chatter, and official provider changelogs.

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Weekly briefing

X gossip & rumors

Indexed posts from X for release chatter, leaks, and lab exec accounts.

Watch:

Provider changelogs

Latest indexed updates from official release notes and changelogs.

Catalog

OpenRouter radar

New frontier listings and cloaked community models from the OpenRouter catalog (hourly).

Browse all models →

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Pipeline

Expected & rumoured

Codenames and briefing items without a live market deadline.

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Why not just use Polymarket or RadarOnAI?

What you need	Markets alone	Editorial calendar	Next AI Drop
Live odds + countdown	Yes	No	Yes
Poly + Kalshi on same card	No	No	Yes
Drop Readiness score	No	No	Yes
Hourly rumor vs confirmed	No	~72h	Hourly
Codename tracker	No	In prose	Dedicated strip
Odds moved since you visited	No	No	Yes
OpenRouter new + cloaked	No	No	Yes

Share a forecast: use Share drop on the featured card — we append a deep link so referrals are measurable.